Brownback vs. Winn
Gov.
Brownback is going to win this race easily. However, it will be much
closer than it should be. I can't tell you the number of people I know
who have cast votes for Jennifer Winn in advanced voting. The handful of
people I spoke to said they recognize that Brownback will win and want
him to, but they said they hoped their votes would send a message that
all isn't quite rosy in the love affair between conservatives and the
Brownback administration.
Under
normal circumstances, an incumbent Republican Governor in red Kansas
should probably win with more than 80 percent of the vote. (Even 90
percent wouldn't be unreasonable.) In my mind, if the Brownback/Colyer
ticket doesn't come close to 80 percent, they should be concerned. The
general election isn't going to be a cake walk.
And
OK. One insider-y bit, I have heard from people who have been out
campaigning for House and U.S. Senate candidates that many conservative
voters on doorsteps are openly hostile to the Governor. The likely
voters are happy to vote for a conservative candidate, but they haven't
been overjoyed about voting for Brownback. Does that mean they'll
support Democrat Paul Davis? I can't say, but seriously, Mark Dugan,
David Kensinger, whoever is running Brownback's campaign, please, please
start listening to your conservative legislators. I KNOW they have
mentioned the doorstep conversations to you. They aren't making this
stuff up. Many conservative, likely voters -- you're very base of
support -- are completely fed up with Brownback.
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