Kansas GOP Insider (wannabe): Gidget's predictions -- Eilert vs. Peterson vs. Lightner

Monday, August 4, 2014

Gidget's predictions -- Eilert vs. Peterson vs. Lightner

Eilert vs. Peterson vs. Lightner

This race is the only race that will appear on every single ballot issued in Johnson County. The three-way, non-partisan battle to chair the Johnson County Board of Commissioners will be pared to two on Aug. 5.  

Conservative Patricia Lightner has a marked advantage in this primary race. I don't know if it will carry her across the finish line at the general election, but she wins the primary by a healthy margin. 

More conservatives will make their way to the ballot box than anyone else in this primary election. There's just no reason for Democrats to bother heading to the polls, and there actually aren't that many Republican races this year pitting conservatives vs. moderates. (There are a few, and that may drive some people to the polls, and I expect in certain pockets of Johnson County, those folks will break for Eilert.)

Lightner will carry Olathe and southern Johnson County by big margins. She will also carry conservatives from every part of the county.

The Eds will split moderates with Peterson taking the approximate 5 Democrats who bother to vote. I am not sure which of the Eds advances to the general, but I'd be more likely to place money on Eilert than on Peterson.

Eilert has a broad base of support in Overland Park, Johnson County's largest city. He will also wrangle most moderate, Republican voters. 

That leaves Ed Peterson with the few Democrats who bother to show up for the primary election and a handful of moderates. I don't think it's enough to advance him to November.

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