Kansas GOP Insider (wannabe): How stupid do we look?

Friday, October 25, 2013

How stupid do we look?

Seriously, does anyone actually believe this?

A new survey out released today suggests that Gov. Sam Brownback may be in danger of losing the gubernatorial race in 2014.

According to the Survey USA and KWCH 12 survey, only 39 percent of the people polled would vote for Brownback/Colyer today versus 43 percent of voters who would vote for Paul Davis and Jill Docking.

I'm not buying it and they shouldn't be selling it. I can count on one hand the number of people I know who will vote for Davis and Docking. (And unlike most liberals, I have TONS of friends of the other political stripe.)

The poll just makes absolutely NO sense based on well, logic and reason.

The poll takers spoke with 600 Kansans over the course of two days. Of those, 15 percent weren't registered voters. Who on this planet actually thinks 15 percent of the un-registered voters in this state are going to flock to the county election office to register to vote in advance of the riveting elections on the docket for 2014? (And yes, I'm assuming the low information voters broke significantly for Davis. They've probably seen nothing but bad press about Brownback since Day One of his term. The press HATES Republicans, especially pro-life ones.)

A commenter notes that I misread part of the poll:
You misread the poll regarding registered and unregistered Kansans. They contacted 600 people, 511 were registered, and those 511 responded to the question. If you want to attack the methodology of the poll, you're off to a bad start. Now, registered versus likely voters is something to pick on here. Polls relying upon likely voters are far more accurate than those based on registered voters. Additionally, it seems like a disproportionate number of people polled make over $80K. But dismissing this poll because the numbers don't jive with your opinion is what got the GOP in trouble in 2012.

The commenter is correct. I didn't read carefully enough. I blame the fact that it's Friday :) That said, there are plenty of other problems with the poll, including the one the commenter mentioned -- a disproportionate number of people making $80,000 per year. Probably most importantly is how many of those registered, not likely, voters will actually vote in a very blah 2014 election? 

A show of hands. Anyone? Anyone? Right. That's not going to happen. There will be no top-of-ticket excitement on the ballot in 2014. The most interesting race, as it stands today, will be the Republican primaries (and locally, I'm fascinated by the Eilert/Peterson race for county chair.)

There's no high drama in the general (so far). There will be no MTV Rock-the-Vote style voter drives to get the uninformed to the polls in Kansas next November. 

The only part of the poll that makes even a tiny bit of sense is that Brownback theoretically would lose 30 percent of the Republican vote. (I think that sounds about right -- at least in portions of the state where the RINO influence is fierce but waning.)

I'm not going to waste any more time on this ridiculous survey. Those pollsters are selling something that no one of common sense and integrity should buy.




2 comments:

  1. You misread the poll regarding registered and unregistered Kansans. They contacted 600 people, 511 were registered, and those 511 responded to the question. If you want to attack the methodology of the poll, you're off to a bad start.

    Now, registered versus likely voters is something to pick on here. Polls relying upon likely voters are far more accurate than those based on registered voters. Additionally, it seems like a disproportionate number of people polled make over $80K. But dismissing this poll because the numbers don't jive with your opinion is what got the GOP in trouble in 2012.

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  2. I knew the poll was inaccurate when it said 12% would vote independent. That NEVER happens in Kansas.

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